Does James Cameron really think AVATAR will get two sequels?
Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last year or so, you’ve at least heard of a little James Cameron film called AVATAR. We’re nearly a week away and the hype train is chugging along at full speed. It seems like every day there is more news, photos, trailers, TV spots, interviews, first-look reviews, and the like cropping up all over the internet. Cameron has supposedly had this project fully underway for about 4 years and in conception for about 13. Recent estimations put the current budge at well over $500 million. By all standards, this film is an insane undertaking. And as if he weren’t crazy enough, Cameron has apparently intended the film as a Trilogy.
According to an interview Sam Worthington gave to Total Film, “[they've] signed for three pictures”. No word on exactly who ‘they’ is, but it at least shows crazy ambition on the part of James Cameron. He is either extremely brilliant, or extremely stupid. He has to know how big of a risk he’s taking with this project. I mean, let’s just talk numbers for a second here. If the rumors of the $500 million budget are correct, then even if the film grosses over $500 million at the box office, it will have been considered a financial failure. If you need a little perspective, just take a look at last years big summer blockbuster The Dark Knight. This Christopher Nolan breakout hit currently holds the rank of highest grossing opening weekend of all time, was based on a previously established and widely loved franchise, had a built in audience from being a sequel, and still took 45 days to break $500 million world wide. It had everything going for it and it was still a surprising success.
If AVATAR is going to turn a profit at all, let alone make enough to justify 2 sequels, it’s going to have to do gangbusters in theaters. Even with the inflated ticket prices from the IMAX 3D presentation, I don’t think it has the chance to pull in the record numbers it’s going to need to succeed. Yes, the film is getting huge hype, but Sci-Fi films don’t historically do all that well in general. Even Roland Emmerich’s Independence Day, the highest grossing Sci-Fi film of all time, has only grossed $817 million since it’s release in 1996 (only about $300 million in the states). I just don’t see AVATAR pulling in enough money to convince any studio that they wanna take on a sequel. But then again, this is all speculation on my part. Who knows, maybe all the effects and hard work that Cameron and crew have put in will pay off next week when it hits theaters.
my name is Christopher Schnese
and this is my real perspective
